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Student Presenter(s) and Advisor

Judith Gilbert '14Follow

Location

Calvin Durand

Abstract

The hindsight bias refers to the tendency of people to increase their confidence in a prediction after they have learned the outcome of an event. (This is also known as the knew-it-all-along effect.) The present study explored hindsight bias in the context of the 2012 United States presidential election. Participants were asked to predict various election outcomes one week before the election and then were asked to reconstruct those predictions one week after the election. The study shows strong evidence of hindsight bias, and this bias did not depend on political affiliation, gender, or prior knowledge.

Presentation Type

Poster

Start Date

4-9-2013 1:00 PM

End Date

4-9-2013 2:30 PM

Panel

Posters

Field of Study for Presentation

Psychology

Included in

Psychology Commons

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Apr 9th, 1:00 PM Apr 9th, 2:30 PM

Hindsight Bias in the 2012 US Presidential Election

Calvin Durand

The hindsight bias refers to the tendency of people to increase their confidence in a prediction after they have learned the outcome of an event. (This is also known as the knew-it-all-along effect.) The present study explored hindsight bias in the context of the 2012 United States presidential election. Participants were asked to predict various election outcomes one week before the election and then were asked to reconstruct those predictions one week after the election. The study shows strong evidence of hindsight bias, and this bias did not depend on political affiliation, gender, or prior knowledge.